经济继续低迷 英国5月零售额下降

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英国经济继续不景气，虽然4月皇室大婚刺激了消费，5月的零售总额还是下降了1.4%

[来源：卫报 6月16日]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busine ... ales-consumer-slump

Retail sales figures reveals depth of consumer slump

The slump in retail sales in May does not bode well for GDP growth in the second quarter

The slump in retail sales in May does not bode well for GDP growth in the second quarter

  

Spending squeeze hits retail sales
Retail sales were down sharply in May. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA

Retail sales dived by twice the expected rate in May as consumers cut their spending on clothes and other non-food items to pay for higher petrol prices.

Retailers said the difficult economic outlook had depressed consumer confidence and encouraged shoppers to stay away from the high street.

Sales volumes dropped 1.4%, more than reversing the 1.1% increase in April that was mainly attributed to the royal wedding and unseasonally warm weather.

Vicky Redwood, senior UK economist at Capital Economics said the figures showed that April was a temporary blip to a long-term downward trend.

"The underlying trend in sales over the past several months still looks broadly flat at best. What's more, we expect this trend to worsen as households respond to the intensifying squeeze on their real pay. We continue to think that overall household spending will drop by about 1% this year," she said.

Redwood pointed out that recent swings in spending have been primarily driven by consumers cutting food bills, but non-food sales also fell, reversing April's gain. Clothing, household goods and department store sales all dropped to leave sales over the year since last April virtually flat at 0.2% up.

The slump in retail sales in May does not bode well for GDP growth in the second quarter and further increases the chances that the Bank of England will delay raising interest rates until 2012.

Economist Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said the figures would be seen by the Bank of England as justifying a low interest rate policy and maintenance of quantitative easing. But hints that rates would rise towards the end of the year in line with market expectations were likely to discourage consumers from spending.

"Many consumers are likely to be worried that the Bank of England could start to raise interest rates before the end of the year. Even if the Bank of England only edges interest rates up, it will affect consumer psychology as people are bound to see the move as the first in a series of hikes," he said.

He said the implications for GDP growth in the second quarter were also likely to concern the Bank of England. "This is particularly worrying for second-quarter GDP growth prospects, given that consumer spending accounts for 65% of GDP," he said.

Consumer price inflation remained at 4.5% in May, which was substantially above average annual earnings growth of around 2% in April.

Archer added: "Consumer spending fell by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in real terms in the first quarter of 2011, and the likelihood is that it will stay very weak for some time to come as household purchasing power remains under severe pressure from high inflation, low wage growth and tighter fiscal policy. Furthermore, soaring utility bills will shortly add to the squeeze on consumers. In addition, unemployment is still high and debt levels are elevated.

"Meanwhile, the weak housing market has adverse repercussions for consumer spending. A healthy housing market activity boosts demand for carpets, fittings and furnishings as well as major household appliances while rising house prices can have a significant wealth effect."


      Retail sales: what the analysts say

      Retail sales dived by twice the expected rate in May as consumers cut their spending on clothes and other non-food items to pay for higher petrol prices